Put you house on it, or don't. I don't care

With the kickoff to the new Premier League season just hours away I’ve decided at the last minute, as I often do, to put my predictions down in writing. That way when the season draws to a close I can say, “Ye I predicted that” in an aloof manner and have the proof to back it up. If I’m wrong then this little piece shall quickly be confined to the annals of history and hopefully never mentioned again. Of course if I do get some right then expect a fair amount of drunken gloating, not my best quality but a quality nonetheless. Let me know what you think in the comments section as I’m almost sure to hurt some feelings, but frankly, I don’t really give a damn.

Premier League top 6: Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham

Man Utd are favourites for the title and for good reason. Yes they have lost a couple of experienced heads but Sir Alex has a knack for consistently reinventing his side, building a team capable of winning the title with their usual flair and swagger. I believe the injection of youth coupled with the anticipated challenge for the title by their city rivals will give them all the motivation they need to claim their 20^th title in the Premiership’s 20^th year.

Man City have to be considered serious contenders just by sheer force of numbers, or in this case quality. These players have had one more season together and should be a much more cohesive unit than we saw at times last season. The signing of Sergio Aguero, coupled with the retention of Carlos Tevez and sprinkling of talent in the form of Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli and you have a team capable of tearing the league apart. For me question marks still hang over the head of Roberto Mancini and his negative style of football but if they manage to challenge for the title he may still be in a job next season.

I expect a tough first season in the job for Andre Villas-Boas. An aging squad and the youngest manager in the league should make for an interesting combination. If he can get the best out of his misfiring striker, Fernando Torres, then they may mount a strong challenge. I don’t expect him to be given the chance to mould his own squad and I wouldn’t be surprised if the notoriously short sighted Abramovich cuts his two year contract short at the end of this season. Perhaps the Man City job beckons for him come 2012/2013.

Liverpool and King Kenny have spent large sums of cash on English talent and this should see them edge above Arsenal in the race for Champions League football. The partnership of Carrol and Suarez upfront could prove to be one of the most dynamic in the Premiership. Kenny has also bought a balance to the side with the purchase of three left footed players including a much needed left back and a winger. If they start the season like they finished the last then there is no reason why they can’t finish higher up the table than 4^th.

I place Arsenal in 5^th at my own peril. For the last few seasons their place among the top 4 has been questioned and they have answered their critics on every occasion. They have been enjoying Champions League football at Highbury/Emirates for every year of Arsene Wenger’s reign, so why should this season be any different? Wenger seems to be losing the faith of the fans and the loss of Cesc Fabregas and possibly Samir Nasri isn’t going to lighten their mood. They have made a good signing in the shape of Gervinho which may offer them a plan-B when their slick passing football fails them but they are crying out for a solid centre back and a dependable goalkeeper. I’m afraid until Wenger addresses these problems they will be also-rans as they have been for the last 6 trophyless years.

Tottenham have managed to retain the services of all of their key players which stands them in good stead for the season ahead. They have however failed to add any substantial talent to their squad and they risk slipping down the pecking order in the face of stronger challenges from Liverpool and Man City. They are lacking a 20 goal a season striker and I don’t see Crouch, Pavlychenko and Defoe being able to fire them into the top 4. They will risk losing their stars such as Bale and Modric to the allure of Champions League football at the end of the season.

Premier League bottom 3: Wolves, Swansea, Norwich

Wolves managed to survive by the skin of their teeth on a final day in which they spent most of the 90 minutes in the relegation zone. With not much done to strengthen their squad they may find themselves one place further down, which means one league down come next season. 

I expect Swansea to be the Blackpool of this season, playing expansive football under Brendon Rogers, picking up fans along the way but ultimately paying the price for trying to play the game in the right way. Much will depend on their home form, which was the best in the Championship last season, and the form and fitness of Scott Sinclair.

Norwich find themselves in the Premiership after back-to-back promotions and I fear that the quality of the Premier League may be a bridge too far for the Canaries. Their squad is lacking in Premier League experience and are rightfully among the favourites to head straight back down.

Premier League top scorer: Robin Van Persie

I sound like a stuck record. For years I’ve been calling RVP to be the top scorer in the prem but every season he’ll start like a house of fire then he’ll proceed to get injured and end up 5^th on the list. So I go out on a limb again this year after his unbelievable run at the end of last season and maybe, just maybe, he’ll stay fit enough to bag 25 goals.

First Premier League manager to be sacked: Steve Kean

Steve Kean struggled toward the end of last season with a Blackburn squad that is woefully short on quality. I don’t expect him to last too long this season, with perhaps a more experienced manager coming in to fill the role at Ewood Park.

Promotion to the Premiership: Leicester City, West Ham, Nottingham Forest

Looking at the Championship and picking three sides to get promoted is one of the hardest things you can do. Leicester City have compiled a squad of Football League elite and under the guidance of Sven-Göran Eriksson they should find their way back to England’s top league. 

I fancy West Ham to bounce straight back under the guidance of “Big Sam”. They have managed to hold onto many of their key players such as Carlton Cole and Scotty Parker as well as making some good signings including ex-Newcastle captain Kevin Nolan who made his name under Big Sam at Bolton. 

Nottingham Forest have suffered play-off heartbreak on many occasions in recent seasons but with the signing of former England manager Steve Mclaren they have a man with a proven track record in England and in Europe. I fancy them to go one better this season win the most lucrative match in football, the play-off final.

FA Cup winners: Chelsea

It’s not all doom and gloom for Andre Villas-Boas as I expect him to pick up a trophy in his first English season. Both AVB and Chelsea have good pedigrees cup football and I expect them to continue that tradition with a F.A Cup triumph. 

Carling Cup winners: Liverpool

Liverpool are the most successful club in the history of the Carling Cup, covering its many reincarnations. With no European football to focus on this season I believe King Kenny will concentrate on bringing some silverware to Anfield through the domestic cup competitions and the Carling Cup provides him with a great chance to do just that.

 

Champions League winners: Bayern Munich

I could’ve played it safe here and gone for the expected Barcelona. I mean with the signing of Alexis Sanchez and possibly Cesc Fabregas this Barcelona side have a chance to write their names into history and I expect them to do so. But why play it safe? Bayern Munich have always been up there at the business end of this competition and with a couple astute signings they could really challenge for European honours. Most importantly the signing of Manuel Neuer has finally filled the prodigious hole left by Oliver Kahn.

Europa League winners: PSG

With the money pouring into the French capital from Qatari investors the Parisian club has made some headline signings on and off the pitch. Their starting line-up reads like a Ligue 1 dream team and with the record signing of Javier Pastore PSG have shown they really mean business in their bid to find their way back into Europe’s elite. They should start off that journey with victory in the Europa League.

Regards

The Commodore

Unchartered territory

I had a read over all that I’d written in the last few months and I noticed a certain sport that was missing entirely from my repertoire. That sport is of course, the wonderful game of rugby union. I certainly have spoken extensively on the issue, usually with a late night conviction that can only come after one too many Rovers drinks specials. Those observations have ranged extensively, from Meyer Bosman’s poor defence to Charl McLeod’s general descent into fully fledged “Januarie madness”. Just like the aforementioned Springbok scrumhalf he seems to have lost all ability remain calm at the foot of a ruck or if a referee raises his arm to indicate a penalty. That gesture seems push him over the edge into a frenzy, similar to the state you may find yourself after ingesting a dose or two of adrenochrome. I have even spoken many times on the subject of Bismarck tucking Janie in every night in what can only be considered as a rather perplexing expression of their brotherly love. Get a TV in your room Janie, you surely have a few buffaloes lying around considering you are a doctor and a springbok. But let me not drag myself off topic here. 

The true reasoning for this article is that the Super 15 has finally entered the playoff stages, although for some teams, like the Sharks and the Waratahs, they have been playing knockout rugby for some time now. This is not a moment of reflection on the season but rather of the spirited, bloody-minded display the Sharks put on at fortress Loftus last weekend and a look forward to their mouth-watering clash in Nelson this weekend. The Sharks it must be said have coughed and spluttered throughout the campaign, failing to hit top gear for anything near 80 minutes of rugby. They had threatened on occasion to unleash a commanding, composed performance but that performance never came until this past weekend. The difference from that performance to any other is that they started in minute 4, not minute 40. It must also be noted that this performance came against the defending champions, who were on a six game unbeaten run at a venue that they had gone 20 games unbeaten at until going down to the Highlanders earlier this season. It was no mean feat, and on the day that stalwarts, Victor Matfield, Fourie Du Preez and Bakkies Botha, in his hundredth match, were to bow out and say goodbye to the supporters that they had bled blue for. And bleed they did. 

This was a game of test match intensity and it produced an epic performance from both teams to show that SA rugby is in rude health ahead of the defence of the William Webb Ellis trophy later this year.  In a season that has stopped and started for the Sharks, with constant rotation to keep players fit for the ludicrously extended tournament, it came as no surprise that the Sharks clicked on the day in which John Plumtree finally selected his strongest combination. This combination included an ace in the pack, Frederic Michalak, and relegated the Springbok captain to the bench. Surely Peter De Villiers has to see now that Bismarck should get the nod ahead of John Smit for the big matches in New Zealand. Perhaps it is better that Smit should find himself on the field in the dying embers of a game where composure is essential. We need only look at the 2007 Super 14 final between these same two sides as an example of what his experience means at the end of a match. On that day both he and Percy Montgomery found themselves hopeless on the bench while Bryan Habana tiptoed his way through the Sharks tiring defence and shattered the dreams of each and every Sharks supporter. 

Looking ahead to the upcoming clash with the Crusaders, the Sharks can take a certain degree of confidence into the match. Reflecting on their previous meeting, all the way across the equator in London, we see a couple things have changed since then. On that day in sunny Twickenham the Sharks were torn apart in the midfield by a rampant Sonny Bill Williams. I wouldn’t go so far as to say he hasn’t reached those heights since, but he certainly has lost a bit of his unstoppable aura since the humble cheetahs managed prove PDV at least partially correct. And we must not forget that the midfield that the Sharks fielded that day was without the irrepressible Patrick Lambie and the newly acquired mercurial talents of a certain French playmaker. On that day, like many others throughout the season, the Sharks only managed to show up in the second half after haemorrhaging points throughout the first 40 minutes. One only feels that if they manage to show up as they did against the Bulls then it may be a different kettle of fish this weekend. Another aspect of that match was the lack of clean set piece ball the Sharks were able to lay their hands on, especially at scrum time. Need I remind you that John Smit started that day at loosehead prop, which probably won’t be the case this coming weekend. The lineout, so often an Achilles heel for the Sharks this year was solid this past weekend, against perhaps the strongest lock pairing this country has ever seen and was the platform for arguably the set piece try of the season with the born again JP Pietersen sending the evergreen Stefan Terblanche over in the corner.

It is Terblanche and Meyer Bosman who will have to be at the top of their game this weekend. One gets the sense that Dan Carter and co will attack the channel between Frederic Michalak and Meyer Bosman more extensively than the Bulls did. For all the Frenchman’s brilliance on attack, there are still questions to be asked about his willingness and ability to stop a rampaging Sonny Bill. Looking at the Crusaders they have also not been in prime form in the past few weeks but they have made a habit of winning tight matches. They will also be boosted by the return of Sonny Bill Williams and their top try scorer Shaun Maitland as they seek to make the semi finals for the 13^th time in franchise history. They have however lost at “home” this season, going down to the Highlanders in week 10 at the same ground. The weather may also prove to be a factor with heavy rain predicted Friday and a good chance of it repeating on Saturday. If this is the case then it should play into the Crusaders hands as it will negate the ability of the Sharks to throw the ball around as they like to do. There is also a certain Daniel Carter, with his tactical kicking skills to consider should the match turn into a muddy battle.

Let us hope that it doesn’t get to that and these two sides put on a showcase for the game as they did when they met at Twickenham. Hopefully the Sharks will show up from the first minute and leave it all out there on the field. If the Sharks manage to overcome the difficulties surrounding travel and start the match with a full strength side there is no reason that they won’t be able to continue this unlikely run and head to the table topping Reds next week. Either way, next week will produce a matchup of a couple of the world’s best ball playing fly halves and hopefully both teams will serve up a classic of a semi-final.

Sala Kahle

 Commodore Vegas

Wenger, the nutty professor?

Another season has come to pass for Arsenal and the long wait for a trophy is set to be extended by one more year. Bullied and beaten, Arsenal bowed out of the title race last night in a fashion that has become all too familiar to their supporters. The loss condemned them to their sixth consecutive year without a trophy and no matter how eloquently and philosophically Arsene Wenger puts it that is too long for a club of Arsenal’s size. And have no doubt about it Arsenal are a big club. Prof Einstein once said, “The definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.” Wenger could do a lot worse than to heed his colleague’s advice. Season after season we have seen Wenger turn out an inexperienced, naive side with frailties throughout their defence, often with the same result. This Arsenal team is far removed from the one Wenger took charge of back in 1996 and the man at the helm has undergone a transformation of his own. It seems the years managing at the top of English and European football has taken its toll on the once meticulous and unflinching Wenger.  He is no longer the unflappable thinker that took charge of boring, boring Arsenal all those years ago. In the last week we have seen him throw bigger tantrums than Cristiano Ronaldo when he doesn’t get a foul. His hair gets a shade lighter, his demeanour a shade darker. The captain of the Arsenal ship more closely resembles a mad scientist than a professor.

He once said “I’m more of a liberal, but I’m also in favour of common sense and good management.” I’m struggling to see how even the most liberal of Arsenal supporters can see common sense exuding from their manager and their team. What we do see is a naivety (in the players) and stubbornness (in the manager) that has constantly underpinned the potential of this side. I for one have never doubted Wenger’s football philosophy, I consider him an artist amongst managers but his refusal to see the potential pitfalls in this very philosophy is a fatal flaw that could and perhaps should have cost him his job. His inability to develop a viable plan B in the instance of their beautiful flowing football being found out by blood, guts and 10 men behind the ball has cost his side dearly. On their day no one can doubt the beauty and effectiveness of their football. But ask them to branch out and try something new and they seem as clueless as a roomful of blind people playing charades.  The problem comes with the variety of players in their ranks. All of the players find themselves in the same mould and many have been found to be lacking the physicality required to allow the ball to be pumped into the box when all else fails. That has been the biggest change for me over the years, the decline in physicality of their team. Often questioned about the amount of red cards that his team received in the early years, one thing you could never say about an Arsenal team is that they were soft. Commanding centre backs and battling midfielders such as Adams, Keown and Viera were the order of the day. I have yet to see the same displays from the likes of Koscielny, Squillaci and Denilson, amongst others.

I can’t begin to say I have an insight into the inner workings of Arsenal football club and what money has been put at Wenger’s disposal but I do believe that their transfer policy has contributed to their downfall and their lack of trophies. In recent years we have seen the departure of players like Toure and Adebayor but have the players that have come in been adequate replacements? Koscielny, Silvestre, Squillaci and Chamakh are not of the quality required to win a league title. We know that he chooses not to buy stars but rather to make them but in certain positions an experienced world –class player is necessary. One can not discount the amount of points Van Der Sar, Cech and Reina save for their clubs. I can only hazard a guess as to the amount of points the plethora of keepers have cost Arsenal this season, after all I’m not Martin Tyler. Certain sections of supporters have begun to get disheartened and signs that once read “Wenger knows” have been replaced with the less flattering “Wenger knew”. It may all be too soon to be questioning the job of the most successful manager in Arsenal’s history but in his own words if you eat caviar everyday it’s difficult to return to sausages. Perhaps what is required is a fresh bunch of ideas, someone to question his decisions and bring a fresh approach to the table. He still has a vital role to play at the club, of that there is no doubt, but what should that role be?

I do hope that finally takes note of his teams shortcomings this season and works to rectify them over the summer. I’m sure there will be a shakeup of sorts, with perhaps Cesc Fabregas finding his way home. There are too few managers like Professor Wenger nowadays, willing to sacrifice results in order to develop stars and play the beautiful game as it was meant to be. If he could only find a balance between the two then there would be no doubt as to his position at the top of the game. There is always next season and perhaps his young side, like a fine French wine, would've matured by then.

Yours Truly

Commodore Vegas